Published Papers 2019-22
Growth and Trade with Frictions
Latent Exports: Almost Ideal Gravity and Zeros, Review of Economics & Statistics, forthcoming
Quantifying the Extensive Margin(s) of Trade
Non-parametric gravity as deﬁned in this paper characterizes operational implications of spatial arbitrage in goods. Intuition that structural gravity is more general than previous parametric forms is validated. Non-parametric suﬃcient statistics for arbitrage gains from trade and terms of trade are derived. Application with manufacturing trade 2000-2014 show that China’s terms of trade in fell by 8.3% while US manufacturing terms of trade rose by 5.5%. Trade elasticities that best parameterize non-parametric gravity diﬀer methodologically and quantitatively from those commonly inferred for use in counterfactual exercises.
Exchange Rates as Trade Frictions: Estimates and Policy Implications
This paper improves on current treatment of exchange rate variation in quantitative trade models. Exchange rate changes with heterogeneous passthrough to buyers are embedded in the structural gravity model. Quantiﬁcation on two digit annual bilateral trade data reveals real eﬀects of exchange rate changes on producers that are substantial for some country-sector-time period observations. Real national income eﬀects are small but not always negligible. Eﬀective exchange Rates with Gravitas (ERGs) are introduced as theory-consistent indexes to guide potential policy remedies.
software and data for gravity incidence
software to estimate gravity
software to calculate the TR
Incidence of Geography archive