Research Since 2018

Published Papers 2019-22

Growth and Trade Abstract

Growth and Trade with Frictions

Short Run Gravity Abstract

Short Run Gravity

Latent Exports: Almost Ideal Gravity and Zeros, Review of Economics & Statistics, forthcoming

Unpublished Papers

Quantifying the Extensive Margin(s) of Trade

Nonparametric Gravity


Non-parametric gravity as defined in this paper characterizes operational implications of spatial arbitrage in goods. Intuition that structural gravity is more general than previous parametric forms is validated. Non-parametric sufficient statistics for arbitrage gains from trade and terms of trade are derived. Application with manufacturing trade 2000-2014 show that China’s terms of trade in fell by 8.3% while US manufacturing terms of trade rose by 5.5%. Trade elasticities that best parameterize non-parametric gravity differ methodologically and quantitatively from those commonly inferred for use in counterfactual exercises.

Exchange Rates as Trade Frictions: Estimates and Policy Implications


This paper improves on current treatment of exchange rate variation in quantitative trade models. Exchange rate changes with heterogeneous passthrough to buyers are embedded in the structural gravity model. Quantification on two digit annual bilateral trade data reveals real effects of exchange rate changes on producers that are substantial for some country-sector-time period observations. Real national income effects are small but not always negligible. Effective exchange Rates with Gravitas (ERGs) are introduced as theory-consistent indexes to guide potential policy remedies.


software and data for gravity incidence

software to estimate gravity

software to calculate the TR

Incidence of Geography archive

Gravity with Gravitas archive

TRI model zip archive